What Shaped the CAT Bond Market in 1H 2026? 

Written by:

Sandro Kriesch
ARCAS Managing Director, Head of ILS

Sacha Collinson
ARCAS Analyst

The information contained herein is intended primarily for institutional investors and financial professionals. This material is not intended as a recommendation to any retail investor. Any investment decision should be made based on an investor’s individual circumstances and after consultation with appropriate professional advisers.

Note to data and analyses done in this article

All data used in this article stems from Artemis.bm with analyses performed by Acrisure Re Corporate Advisory & Solutions Limited (“ARCAS UK”). Source: Artemis.bm; data as of 30 June 2026. The regression lines, R-squared statistics, and spread multiples shown are based on a limited, non-random sample and should not be treated as predictive.

1. Issue volume, number of issues

The first half of 2026 has seen 83 new 144A cat bond issues (more than 120 tranches) with a total notional of approximately $18 billion, a new half-year record. Another two records can be noted in the first six months: 48 transactions (79 tranches) during 2Q26 and almost $7 billion of issue volume in a single month (May 2026). Spread levels for US named storm show a resistance level for the 4Q25 issues, tilting up again in 1Q26 and 2Q26 (see Chart 1). ARCAS interprets this as investors considering their portfolios to be sufficiently concentrated by now, insisting on risk-adjusted spread levels consistent with their return expectations for additional risk-taking.

2. Spread levels for US HU esposed bonds

In this section ARCAS sampled 144A Cat Bonds which are exposed to US Named storm including those which are exposed to US named storm and other perils, such as US earthquake. This may not be the most precise comparison, but – with the last damaging US earthquake being long in the past – spreads for any of those bonds will be dominated by the hurricane peril. Thus, the price changes reflected in the regression would be meaningful for US named storm.

Chart 1: Regression lines of 144A Cat Bonds exposed to US named storm. Samples with different issue periods are shown. The dashed line shows the weighted spread multiple for each observed sample (the weight being the issued notional). Source: Artemis.bm; data as of 30 June 2026.

US property reinsurance markets have experienced softening in the last 24 months. ARCAS compares bonds issued from 1H24 to 2Q26, split into quarter and half year groups. As expected, and – in line with the traditional market – ARCAS see spread compression also in 144A bonds issued during this period. But it has not been a continuous softening with pricing moving up, e.g., from 4Q24 up to 1H25 and similarly again from 4Q25 to 2026, generally. One could argue that pricing has found a “resistance level,” asking a minimum price for concentration risk of US named storm. The US HU exposed bonds for 2Q26 had a regression equation of 2 times the expected loss plus 0.4% (with an R² of 80%). Another way to look at the data is the spread multiple. This ratio is an indicator of how investors are remunerated as a factor for the accepted risk. Similar to the regression development in this period, the multiples move down and up to settle at a level of around 2.8 for 2Q26. Yet, it is noteworthy, that the weighted multiple has improved from the 4Q25 levels (ca 2.3).

3. The 2Q26 US Hurricane Issues

The 144A bonds which are exposed to US hurricane (and in some cases to other perils, too), issued during the second quarter 2026, represent the last price points before the inception of the hurricane season. Chart 2 shows each bond with its expected loss and final spread, as well as the relative size represented by the bubble.

Chart 2: Regression chart of the expected loss and interest spread of 144A bonds exposed to US hurricane issued in 2Q26. The size of each point represents the final notional value. Source: Artemis.bm; data as of 30 June 2026.

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Transaction Overview

LONDON, UK – Acrisure Re Corporate Advisory & Solutions Limited is pleased to announce its role as financial advisor to FTV Capital in connection with a significant growth equity investment into Carbon Underwriting Limited (Carbon), the market-leading delegated authority underwriting specialist with its own Lloyd’s syndicate.

FTV’s investment will support Carbon’s growth across its delegated underwriting platform, fund continued development of its proprietary Graphene data and analytics technology, deepen its AI capabilities and support international expansion, including the build-out of its US business. Carbon has experienced exceptional growth between 2023 and 2026, with gross written premium increasing from £150 million to £471 million at market-leading loss ratios.

Acrisure Re Corporate Advisory & Solutions Limited served as financial advisor to FTV Capital on the transaction.

*The experiences of the featured client are not indicative of the experience of all clients, and you should not expect similar results. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Client Testimonial

“Throughout the establishment of Corinthian, the ARCAS team leveraged creativity and technical expertise to execute on a complicated, fast-moving, multi-party transaction. The team engineered an innovative deal structure that utilized a London Bridge 2.0 PCC for ourselves, arranged Tier 1 debt to enhance capital returns to all counterparties, and delivered granular analytics that clearly articulated potential investor outcomes. The depth of understanding of Lloyd’s capital frameworks, reporting requirements and processes, along with the close coordination with legal partners ensured a smooth, meticulous process from start to finish. The ARCAS team were some of the most commercial counterparties we have worked with, remaining focused on material items, while flexibly crafting a transaction that worked for all parties involved. We look forward to building Corinthian together in the coming years.”*

Gallatin Point Capital LLC  

*The experiences of the featured client are not indicative of the experience of all clients, and you should not expect similar results. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Transaction Overview

On December 31, 2025, Goodlife Solutions, Inc., the intermediate holding company of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Nebraska, Inc. (“BCBSNE”), completed a $100 million Senior Term Loan offering. BCBSNE is the leading health insurance provider in Nebraska, and the proceeds from the Senior Term Loan will be down streamed to BCBSNE in the form of a surplus note. This additional surplus will further strengthen BCBSNE’s already solid financial position as it advances its growth strategy across government programs.

BCBSNE is a member of the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association, which is comprised of over 30 plans and collectively provides healthcare coverage to nearly one third of all Americans. Founded in 1939, BCBSNE is the leading health insurer for group markets in Nebraska. The company generates approximately $2.6 billion in annual revenue and serves more than 600,000 members.

The Senior Term Loan was privately placed by a syndicate led by Synovus Bank.

Acrisure Re Corporate Advisory and Solutions (“ARCAS”) served as exclusive financial advisor to BCBSNE for this transaction.

Client Testimonial

“Acrisure’s responsiveness and reputation helped make this deal possible. Their preliminary work, connections, and due diligence guided us through our search for top quality partners that met our needs at favorable terms. Tom and his team walked with us through the entire process and helped us find the right deal and the right fit for our needs. I highly recommend Acrisure for anyone looking for a trusted advisor in this space.”

Acrisure Re Corporate Advisory & Solutions

ARCAS served as the exclusive financial advisor to Blue Cross Blue Shield of
Nebraska, providing:

  • Identification of syndicate participants
  • Advisory support on loan structuring and negotiations
*The experiences of the featured client are not indicative of the experience of all clients, and you should not expect similar results. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.